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Ontario’s parliamentary election

No hat trick for Harper

Oct 7th 2011, 14:48 by M.D. | TORONTO

STEPHEN HARPER, Canada’s prime minister, is normally a cautious man. But surrounded by the party faithful at a barbeque in Toronto in August, he mused publicly that with a Conservative majority government in Ottawa and a right-leaning mayor in Toronto, it was time to “complete the hat trick” by electing a conservative government in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province. It was not to be. On October 6th the Liberals, led by Dalton McGuinty (pictured) won their third consecutive government—albeit a minority, with 53 of the 107 seats in the provincial legislature. The Progressive Conservatives, who had gone into the campaign with a strong lead in the polls, won 37 seats, while the leftist New Democratic Party took 17. At least part of the blame for the right’s poor showing can be laid directly at Mr Harper’s door.

Mr McGuinty looked vulnerable after two terms in power. He had backtracked on earlier promises not to raise taxes, had presided over a C$1 billion ($970m) boondoggle to digitalise the health records of Ontario’s 13m residents and was pushing a necessary but unpopular move to green energy that meant higher electricity rates ahead.

Sensing blood, Mr Harper unleashed his cabinet, including Jim Flaherty, the finance minister, to publicly support Tim Hudak, who was running in his first provincial campaign as Progressive Conservative leader. Mr Harper’s chief of staff hosted a fundraiser for his local provincial candidate. Yet many of the Ontario regions that switched allegiance to Conservative from Liberal in the federal election in May, helping Mr Harper to his majority, stayed loyal to the provincial Liberals in October.

In a preliminary post-mortem analysis, the Progressive Conservatives’ campaign secretary tried to explain away the defeat, saying new leaders rarely win government the first time out, that union-financed attacks had hurt Mr Hudak, and that the Liberal loss of 18 seats indicated Ontario voters did want change. The split in the popular vote—37% for the Liberals to 35% for the Progressive Conservatives—supports that argument.

Still, Mr Hudak proved to be a wooden campaigner. He also appeared to be both anti-foreigner, by attacking Liberal plans to help new immigrants find jobs by subsidising businesses that hired them, and anti-gay, supporting an ad suggesting young students would be taught about same-sex marriage. Neither went over well in Toronto, home to a sizeable gay community and where the foreign-born and their children outnumber native-born residents. He was also hurt by the slumping popularity of Rob Ford, the city’s ideologically conservative mayor, who has cut the municipal government’s spending sharply. The Liberals took 17 of 24 seats in Toronto, while the Progressive Conservatives won just one.

Mr McGuinty, for his part, adroitly deployed a tactic Mr Harper had used successfully at the federal level, saying that hard economic times demand an experienced hand at the tiller. Ontario has been hit harder than most Canadian provinces by the slowing world economy and the continued slump in the United States, its largest trading partner. The province is home to much of Canada’s manufacturing industry, including the auto sector, and its unemployment rate of 7.6% is higher than the national average of 7.1%. Yet his call for stability was not enough to maintain the Liberals’ majority: they will now need support from the New Democrats, led by Andrea Horwath, to pass legislation. Mr McGuinty pointedly congratulated her in his victory speech before turning to Mr Hudak.

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hrit

A sad day for Canada indeed. Only a 43 percent voter turnout in Ontario is a record low and an embarrassment to the entire country. What kind of a democracy is this? McGunity should realize he is very lucky, as not many had predicted the outcome of this election. Although Canada has many issues especially with finance, if they are going to start getting their act together, it is up to the citizens to start taking part in the elections.

AshleyBlackwell

It was a sad day for democracy in Canada. Only about forty three percent showed up to vote – making it the first time ever that a voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election has fallen below the 50% mark. The results of this federal election were a shocker for many voters, and a lot of the conclusions from them may need to be reinterpreted. The legislature will be more of a circus. This is because it will be more difficult to deal with Ontario’s financial difficulties, continuous healthcare spending, and its endless transportation issues. Canada needs to get their act together, or they will be taking a puck to the face worldwide.

LG5xKummeN

McGuinty has to thank the weakness of Tim Hudak's campaign and the low voter turnout and general Ontario voter apathy for his victory.

kxbxo

Dalton McGunity should be thanking his lucky stars.
He, and the people of Ontario, dodged a bullet yesterday.

Six months ago very few people would have predicted anything other than a Conservative victory in Ontario.

The federal election result was a shocker for plenty of voters; the famous barbecue was a vision of an eternal roasting; and the botched port-lands adventure was a further vision of that same awful fate.

Dalton McGuinty, the improbable premier, has run a lot better government than he is given credit for; he has a lot stronger cabinet than people realise; and, mostly, he has been fairly careful and cautious in the face of daunting problems. Yes, he may be dull. But in difficult times there can be a lot of virtue in dull.

So they ran a quiet competent campaign, and lots of people decided to count their blessings, after all.

The legislature will be more of a circus. It will be even more difficult to deal with Ontario's financial difficulties, runaway healthcare spending, and interminable transportation problems.

Still, it doesn't diminish the feeling of relief - of Thanksgiving, really - at having avoided a disaster.

Well done, Mr. Premier.

And good luck.

kxbxo

Duffer:

Two wrongs don't make a right.

It is a travesty of democracy, though perhaps not as bad when the party that wins is between the two other parties. At least there is some possibility that the result reflects the middle view of the bulk of the electorate.

In the federal election the winning party would not have been the second choice of voters for any of the other four parties.

All the same, reform of first-past-the-post is long overdue, no matter who wins.

Taking steps to increase voter turn-out is also long overdue. This is the first time ever that voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election has fallen below 50%. A very sad day for democracy.

Niagara duffer

I, for one, would like to second David P Montgomery. What does the author base 'necessary' on? Some clarification would be appreciated. Also, it should be noted here that the Provincial Liberals won with 37% of the vote. That is less than the Federal Conservatives took in the Spring election, yet everyone on the left cried that that was a travesty of the Westminster system. Would any of them care to speak up now?

David P Montgomery

One could argue that Dalton mcGuinty HAS won a third majority. This election had the lowest voter turnout in Ontario history. About 43%.

It is my believe that if you don't vote you tacitly support the outcome of the election regardless of the outcome. You Go, Dalton!

Sherbrooke

One big elephant (or hog) in the room that M.D. carefully tiptoes around is the so far not-so-spectacular tenure of certain Rob Ford, the mayor of Toronto, who managed to fuel every stereotype possible about the croney Conservatism and misplacement of election promices. I would imagine that this could cost Tories a couple of seats in Toronto area.

Another mistake commonly made is the interpretation of exit polls as a lead towards one party or another. Liberals got 37.6% of popular vote; Toried got 35.4%; yet Liberals control 49% of seats vs. 35% for Tories. Canadian election math (not only at the provincial level, but at the federal level as well) is whether a given number of contested seats will swing Liberal or Conservative (and such outcomes often depend more on the nominees than on the public mood, since the differences in policies are not that significant) and how many Liberal voters will go for NDP (or the other way round).

In short: Canadian politics are pretty nonlinear, and in time a lot of conclusions from the 2011 federal elections may need to be reinterpreted.

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