Eastern approaches

Ex-communist Europe

Serbia's EU bid

Things fall apart

Dec 16th 2011, 13:55 by T.J.

FOR much of the year Serbia's government had been looking forward to the summit of European Union heads of government on December 9th, at which it had hoped to be given official candidate status for membership. But given the spectacular bust-up between Britain and the rest of the EU at the meeting, enlargement to the western Balkans was not exactly a priority. Serbia was told it would have to wait until March for a decision.

In fact, this result was not too bad for the government. Serbia may hold elections in May; a positive outcome a couple of months earlier would be very nicely timed. The Democratic Party of President Boris Tadic (a man with impeccable reading taste, as our picture shows) has huge influence over the media and would spin like crazy.

Why did the EU say no? Ivica Dacic, Serbia’s interior minister, says it demanded that Serbia recognise the independence of Kosovo as a condition for candidacy. If true—it has been denied—it would be odd, since five of the EU’s 27 countries themselves do not recognise Kosovo. Still, Mr Dacic, a former spokesman for Serbia’s wartime leader, Slobodan Milosevic, said on Tuesday: “Let’s stop telling fairytales. [Recognition] is what Serbia is required to do and Serbia should choose whether or not it wants this.”

There is a simpler explanation. In the last couple of months German and Austrian peacekeepers have been injured by Serbs in clashes in northern Kosovo. Many of the Serbs manning the barricades they have erected there are on the payroll of the Serbian state, “working” at a university or in the health system. Late last week, Mr Tadic said it was in Serbia's interest that the barricades come down. Like magic, many of them did.

(In a further bizarre twist, Russia has sent a convoy of lorries carrying humanitarian aid to Kosovo. They are not needed: many Serbs in northern Kosovo are far better off than their kinsmen across the border, thanks to the Serbian government's generosity with subsidies and wages.)

The EU's decision has started to shake up Serbian politics. First came the resignation of Bozidar Djelic, the deputy prime minister, who had direct responsibility for European integration. Then, on Sunday, Dragan Djilas, the popular mayor of Belgrade and a media tycoon, launched a broadside against Vuk Jeremic, the foreign minister, urging him to take “responsibility” for Serbia’s failure to win candidacy. 

VIP, a well-informed Belgrade-based newsletter, thinks politics could get rough. It says Mr Djilas may lose his position next year, in which case he will become a frontrunner for for prime minister. The subsequent power struggle could see the formation of some unusual political alliances, in some cases across party lines.

This is feasible, says VIP, because party leaders, “have... constituted themselves into a separate social caste, self-satisfied, self-serving and completely separate from the rest of the nation.”

Mr Djilas’s office, which adjoins Mr Tadic's, has an interesting history. It was once the royal palace. During a coup in 1903 the king and queen were tossed out of the windows. According to one account King Aleksandar clung onto the parapet until one of the assassins chopped off his fingers. Serbian politics remain brutal, though perhaps not to the same degree. Mr Tadic, for what it is worth, has denied there are rifts in his party.

Meanwhile Zoran Zivkovic, a former prime minister who fell out with Mr Tadic, has suddenly resurfaced. Speaking to Nin, a weekly, he said:

I have been receiving threats from people close to the authorities that I would be the Serbian [Ivo] Sanader [a former Croatian prime minister facing corruption charges] if I don’t stop criticising the authorities. They say... not a single tycoon or political party will stand in my defence.

Put all this together and it seems clear that one chapter in Serbian political history is closing and a new one opening.

(Picture credit: Tim Judah)

Readers' comments

The Economist welcomes your views. Please stay on topic and be respectful of other readers. Review our comments policy.

delux1

Kosovo won't be a normal state without Serbia's aproval?
Actually Serbia has nothing to decide, they know and could decide in 1999 and 1990-1999 in balkans when they went around all its neighbours and started wars killing civilians.
Kosovo with or without Serbia's aproval will move on , Serbia has no institution in Kosovo.

I'd like to know where you get your information from? Kosovo was always part of Serbia. My parents were born and raised in Belgrade and they went to Kosovo frequently. Serbie DOES have institutions in Kosovo. I dont know what youre talking about. Review where you get your information from.

Basically what happened is this: Albanian drug lords/criminals/human traffickers bought out the Serbs' residential property at a price that was beneficial for the Serbs. They left Kosovo to live elsewhere. Look at the demographics of Kosovo from today and the demographics of 1960...

bombayduck

Great decision. We have avoided a situation where we would have handed over more money that we cannot afford for useless projects in a country that has nothing to contribute.

bombayduck, I thank you for your very insightful comment (sarcasm intended). It is true that for the first couple of years, it would cost EU a lot of money to "get things rolling" in Serbia. But after the initial investments/contributions by EU tax payers, Serbia would become a valuable asset for the EU Union. It would generate huge revenue because the work force is highly educated but there aren't enough jobs for everybody. University education is completely free in Serbia, it doesnt cost the citizens a penny. Thats why they have so many university graduates but not enough jobs. People from all over Europe would set up offices in Serbia (it would be cheap to buy/maintain, and work force is cheap). People are eager to work. The EU union isnt stupid, they know that if they invest in Serbia, it will bring them even more money. Its all about expansion and investment.

dragos27

Meanwhile, Serbia has a talent to ward off its few remaining friends in the Balkans:

Two of the leaders of Romanian communities in Timoc Valley and Vojvodina were the targets of armed attacks only a few hours apart. Unidentified individuals fired several times on the two leaders’ houses, sending a very clear message: “If you don’t calm down, next time we will shoot to kill.”

matfil

TJ and the Economist have been wrong so many times, when it comes to the western Balkans and Serbia in particular. First it was said that Serbia missed a huge opportunity to let Kosovo go and get on the fast lane into the EU, then Serbia will get welcomed into the "family of European nations" once the "warcriminals" are extradited, and so on and so forth. Everything I read here is pretty much hearsay, peppered with anecdotal evidence about the brutality of serbian politics. On that note: how many american presidents have been killed in office? Give me a break. Be it as it is, if indeed Tadic has started to focus on his job, i.e. the running and sorting out of Serbia, he is to be congratulated. In any case, Kosovo will never be a "normal state" without Serbia's approval. And Serbia's western "friends and partners" are well advised to not underestimate our stubborness and willingness for sacrifice. We have much more skin in this game than all the eurocrats and the western powers combined. With so much on their plate, it is inevitable that they will take their eyes off the ball at some point. It would be interesting to see what happens then. Perhaps TJ will let us know next week?

Szebasyian

LOL. I like the comment about the man's impeccable reading taste. I really like this blog, it has a certain vibe about it that the rest of the Economist doesn't share. Perhaps it's the fact that it's a blog, or perhaps it's the authors themselves. Either way, very good.

logotic

Serbia is the only country in Europe which has never answered for its war crimes or crimes in general.Germany started WW1/2 but they answered for all the crimes they did (at least if its worth) and payed even the destruction of buildings around of europe.
Serbia started wars in Slovenia,Croatia,Bosnia,Kosovo and the actual problem Kosovo were murdered more than 13.000 people and 3000 lost by serbian police and army. All the wars they still didnt arrest all the war criminals and they think only arresting mladic we will accept them in EU. i dont want to pay taxes for unresponsible country like serbia,they're not ready to participate in friendship among their neighbours.they hate croatia,kosovo,bosnia,hungary. why are they making a bid to join EU?

mikimedic

Dacic is correct, and there is no 'simpler explanation'; yes German 'peacekeepers' have been injured, precisely as clashes hae occurred due to KFOR supporting breakaway authorities in Pristina to regain territories in the North.

Serbs have all the legitimacy to fight against those who wish to violate SC 1244.

It is really a bizarre situation that the population is fighting for preservation of the SC resolution, as opposed to 'peacekeepes' that were sent there to do so in the first place. On the contrary, it is those 'peacekeepers' that do violate it.

And 'EU' requirements are in the same line - Serbia is asked to allow Kosovo be represented in regional forums as independent state, and not as a territory under SC1244 administration.

EU asks Serbia to violate UN SC resolution!

Very interesting behavior on the international plane, and very illustrative of the 'EU'.

No wonder that someone (Dacic) is at least recognizing this (or shall I say has guts to recognize it), and no wonder that Serbian people no longer wish to join the EU - in fact, it is only the Tadic puppet regime that wishes to do so, wrongfully counting this would secure them reelection.

delux1 in reply to mikimedic

What a dumb racist criminal comment is that ?
Resolutions are not for life, so is 1244 which is not anymore actual after Kosovo's independence declaration, cos serbia does not have any institution in Kosovo therefore 1244 is useless.
ICJ declared pretty good that Kosovo didnt violate any international law and 1244 DOES NOT STOP kosovo to declare independence.
get over it,

mikimedic in reply to delux1

I will refrain from your language.

If you think that a declaration made by a 'group of people' (NB: ICJ Opinion explains) has more value than the Security Council Resolution, I think you may have a little problem with your rationale.

x2y2

The government is announcing a new diplomatic offensive to persuade the members of the international community (including Russia and China, but excluding Prishtina, of course) to hold a grand session to solve "the Kosovo problem." (Actually, it's probably time to start calling it "the Serbia problem.") Until this is solved, they warn, there will never be stability in the Balkans - a not-so-subtle threat? This new initiative will allow them to argue that they can hardly be expected to change their treatment of Kosovo before the EU's March deadline, since they have to wait for the outcome of the new international negotiations, which might just return Kosovo to them as their southern province. At the very least, even if they don't get the international conference or a pass on the EU requirements because of it, they'll have a new complaint of unfair treatment to use to explain their failure in the election campaign. Meanwhile, the people on the barricades will have their nice new Russian tents and generators to help them through the winter while they do their best to prevent any return to normal life in the north of Kosovo.

prgriffin

The conditions for Serbia were clear. She will not be even considered for candidacy until it delivers war criminals. Once arrested, Serbia had to tackle the actual work on EU integration. The reforms and policies to be in line with Eu legislation and rules so one is fit for candidacy. Well, one of those rules say that one has to engage and be nice to neighbors, and to vast majority of EU members Kosovo is a neighbor of Serbia. So, no one is asking for Serbia to recognize Kosovo, but EU is asking for Serbia to acknowledge and interact with Kosovo, in the model of two Germanies

mikimedic in reply to prgriffin

"The conditions for Serbia were clear. She will not be even considered for candidacy until it delivers war criminals. Once arrested, Serbia had to tackle the actual work on EU integration. The reforms and policies to be in line with Eu legislation and rules so one is fit for candidacy. Well, one of those rules say that one has to engage and be nice to neighbors, and to vast majority of EU members Kosovo is a neighbor of Serbia. So, no one is asking for Serbia to recognize Kosovo, but EU is asking for Serbia to acknowledge and interact with Kosovo, in the model of two Germanies"

Conditions were 'clear' and Serbia has delivered war criminals. And since when is giving up of a territory for any state condition to joint the EU?

Or is it just a condition for Serbia?

If this is the case, if EU can make unique conditions to Serbia, since EU is a two way street (yes, I believe in dialague' - nothing stops Serbia to condition its entry to the Union with 22 states recognizing its sovereignty and respecting SC1244.

I also wonder how 'one of those rules' in respect of Kosovo will be applied to five EU member states that do not recognize it. Is 'EU' (what do you consider as 'EU' on international plane, by the way?) asking Serbia to 'have good relations with Kosovo' but the same request is not posed to the five of its own members?

If any model is to be applied, it is the model of Cyprus.

If 'EU' does not want this model, well too bad.

logotic in reply to mikimedic

Yes,its a condition only for serbia.
It doesn't work like that, killing 13.000 in kosovo, more than 40.000 in bosnia, more than 8000 in croatia and arresting 30people and bidding for EU. Serbia has problems with all its neigbours,they dont like to hear anything of their neighbours,what guarantees EU and us to pay taxes for serbia that they will cooperate with 27 EU countries if they cant cooperate with 3 neighbours?!

mikimedic in reply to logotic

Really? and the new EU member state of Croatia never killed anyone, nor it committed the biggest post WWII ethnic cleansing in Europe?

And isn't it the fact that the only country of the former Yugoslav Republics (save for Macedonia, but for other reasons) where no ethnic cleansing has ever taken place, and where 20% of its population are minorities -- is Serbia?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Serbia#Current_ethnic_compo...

Compare this to present day Kosovo or Croatia.

radolaz

Originally the conditions for Serbia's candidacy were that all the Hague war criminals are arrested. After Serbia has done that in June, all of the sudden, despite talks between Belgrade and Pristina, in JULY Thaci sends Kosovo special police to the north of Kosovo and causes extremist Serbs there to pull up barricades. Those barricades are still there despite author arguing the opposite, showing that the north of Kosovo is in fact a black hole with leaders who are members of Serbian nationalist parties, and Belgrade government can only have limited control over them, but their allegiance lays with their nationalist leaders who would like oh so much that Tadic loses both the candidacy bid and the elections.

Although all these years it was explicitly said Kosovo isn't a condition for candidacy (b92.net -> “kosovo eu candidacy” search), miraculously and overnight it becomes one.

It sounds a bit weak of an argument to hide behind the fact that 5 EU countries haven't recognized Kosovo, when it's a public secret that Germany is running pretty much everything in the EU right now.

EU (Germany) has been so hypocritical and thus so successful in effectively discrediting any kind of anti-nationalist government of Serbia that sometimes I wish the nationalists win the election again, and then Mrs Merkel, happy negotiations. Or was this the plan all along?

I won't be commenting any further. Mr Medic, please fire up the troll engine...

radolaz

Originally the conditions for Serbia's candidacy were that all the Hague war criminals are arrested. After Serbia has done that in June, all of the sudden, despite talks between Belgrade and Pristina, in JULY Thaci sends Kosovo special police to the north of Kosovo and causes extremist Serbs there to pull up barricades. Those barricades are still there despite author arguing the opposite, showing that the north of Kosovo is in fact a black hole with leaders who are members of Serbian nationalist parties, and Belgrade government can only have limited control over them, but their allegiance lays with their nationalist leaders who would like oh so much that Tadic loses both the candidacy bid and the elections.

Although all these years it was explicitly said Kosovo isn't a condition for candidacy (b92.net -> “kosovo eu candidacy” search), miraculously and overnight it becomes one.

It sounds a bit weak of an argument to hide behind the fact that 5 EU countries haven't recognized Kosovo, when it's a public secret that Germany is running pretty much everything in the EU right now.

EU (Germany) has been so hypocritical and thus so successful in effectively discrediting any kind of anti-nationalist government of Serbia that sometimes I wish the nationalists win the election again, and then Mrs Merkel, happy negotiations. Or was this the plan all along?

I won't be commenting any further. Mr Medic, please fire up the troll engine

delux1 in reply to radolaz

Taci or whoever they have rights to send anything in withint or inside their institutional borders, at least they didn't kill anyone as Serbia killed balkans when they sent police and soldiers areound balkan 1990-1999!
Kosovo has fully rights to protect its institutional borders from war criminals who lead north kosovo with crime,drugs,weapons.They're a problem for serbia itself,why should kosovo tolerate them when their country doesn't.

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

Advertisement

Trending topics

Read comments on the site's most popular topics

Advertisement

Products & events