Eastern approaches

Ex-communist Europe

Romanian politics

Free falling

Feb 7th 2012, 19:45 by V.P. | BUCHAREST

THE year started badly for Emil Boc, the now-former prime minister of Romania. A public row between Traian Basescu, the president, and Raed Arafat, a popular health-care official, over a proposed health reform sparked violent protests in January that eventually led to a government retreat on the new plans and a series of resignations. That was followed by his party's loss of the Senate last week, when two lawmakers deserted to the opposition. And now Mr Boc himself has stepped down, along with his cabinet, in an effort to "diffuse social tensions" and maintain "economic stability".

Mr Boc's Democratic Liberal Party has slipped to less than 15% support in the polls, while support for the opposition has soared. This is in part due to austerity measures taken by the government, part of a €20 billion EU-IMF-World Bank bail-out deal that Mr Boc admits has been "painful". But, he insists, the measures have also worked. The country has returned to growth and GDP is expected to rise by more than 1.5% this year. It has been revealed that Mr Boc "carefully prepared" his resignation so as not to coincide with the IMF mission to Bucharest, which ended on Sunday with praise for the government's actions and only a slight cut in the fund's growth forecast for the country, due to the persisting euro-zone troubles.

Mr Boc now hopes to rebuild support for his party ahead of the next general election, scheduled for November. But this could come sooner than planned. The president has appointed Catalin Predoiu, the outgoing justice minister, to take over for Mr Boc on an interim basis, and he has nominated Mihai Razvan Ungureanu, the head of the country's foreign-intelligence service, as the new prime minister. Mr Ungureanu and his ministers are likely to be approved, as the ruling coalition still holds a majority in the lower house. But the opposition has promised to continue a boycott of parliament started last week. "We are not going anywhere with this new government," said Crin Antonescu, head of the Liberal Party. For him and his like-minded colleagues, the only way forward is an early vote.

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Popa_Eng

Dear sir
Mr Boc ,after compleating the major tasks and getting good marks from the 3 commisions (IMF,UE andBM) ,has made a strategic retreat .
It does make sens to disappear for a while and organize the 2 major campains for his party.And it does make sens ,because he will almost certain succeed as new mayor of Cluj and will boost the chances of PDL in that county.
When election is over ,if PDL is to loose power ,his clear cut personnality ,background and communication skills will be the best assets!
At that future grim time of opposition ,he will righteously point what he had done good and where future governement will proove less fortunate.
I think that Mr Boc was spared the open mutiny in his party and the opposition "strike " in Parliament, with his decision to resign.
I thank him for effort ,energy and foresight to spare Romania from a downward debt spiral as we see now in some countries of Europe.
Best regards from Romania!

Coasta de Azorel

Home page of TE, today, 19:18:
Romanian politics, Free Falling, The government collapses after a tough start to the year

Home page of any Romanian newspaper, today afternoon:
New government voted by parliament

Somewhere in the back, on TE:
Romania - New government, old problems

I let you judge if this is a smear campaign or not.

Tudor Jitianu

Sad that some mocking comments (la mișto) are better than the article. The best one pointing to the song so let us get to the point. If the ex PM is the "bad boy" free falling and Romania is the good girl then it might make some sense although PDL likes America so ... This is the refrain of the last 20 years, the bad guys climbing to the top to do a "free falling" and Romania, the good girl sitting at home with a broken heart. Not entirely true according to the latest census.

Problem is all are quite representative for their moment, Iliescu (we still want a big brother - tătucă), Constantinescu (we don't want the tătucă anymore), Iliescu again (it is somehow better with tătuca), Băsescu (we are a majority of vulgar emancipated people).

Even a master at Oxford won't get you to understand some local things like "șmecher care te face pe la spate". So we welcome the Oxford graduates but we do recommend some internship before taking some high public job in such a special country.

Corruption is not something that is only in the administration and that can survive with the rest of the people being like saints, It Takes Two To Tango.

Coasta de Azorel

I said it before and I'll say it again: TE, please check V.P. connection in Romanian media and his credentials. How does it appear so fast in Romanian newspapers (2-3 hours after being posted on TE)?

The article has been copied and misinterpreted in numerous ways in Romanian newspapers; nobody mentioned it's a blog post. All suggest it's a serious analysis by a foreign expert or something. I believe you should add some sort of disclaimer to these articles, explaining that it's V.P.'s own opinion and that V.P. is a mere mortal :-). I think it's easy to see how many of your usual readers are irritated by the one-sided and undocumented posts by V.P. Please check last week's article by T.W., which managed to do a good job.

And one more thing: would you care to look at the economy of that country instead of being so concerned with politics? I think FT has waaaaay better coverage of Romanian/CEE economics than you. Otherwise, please consider changing the name from The Economist to The Politician.

P.S.: V.P.'s titles are just appalling:
1. Political crisis in Romania: Wobbles at the top | The Economist
Sep 27th 2010, 16:36 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
2. Romania: Too hot to handle | The Economist
Jun 14th 2010, 16:31 by V.P. | BUCHAREST AND E.L. | LONDON.
3. Romania's hopeless politics: How not to run a country | The Economist
Romania's hopeless politics. How not to run a country. Oct 22nd 2010, 18:35 by V.P. | BUCHAREST
4. France's expulsion of Roma: Have your Roma back | The Economist
Aug 19th 2010, 9:44 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
5. Romania's economy: What's that giant sucking sound? | The ...
Nov 28th 2011, 17:46 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
6. Romanian roads: Romania's motorway blues | The Economist
Aug 16th 2011, 12:09 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
7. Anti-missile defence in Romania: The great shield of Deveselu | The ...
Anti-missile defence in Romania. The great shield of Deveselu. Nov 7th 2011, 19: 03 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
8. (the last straw): Rioting in Romania: The battle of Bucharest | The Economist
The battle of Bucharest. Jan 16th 2012, 13:57 by V.P.. Tweet. "POLENTA doesn't explode" is the gnomic phrase Romanians

P.P.S.: TE has been very generous and deleted a post of mine containing a short list of possible V.P.'s from politically involved media groups.

Just a suggestion for you, V.P.: maybe you should follow your own prophecy about Romania's downfall and leave that country asap. You should really leave if you hate it so much. Hopefully TE will continue to pay you for your political insight and superior economic analyses (posted from a safer, better place, like Syria...)

Coasta de Azorel

I said it before and I'll say it again: TE, please check V.P. connection in Romanian media and his credentials. How does it appear so fast in Romanian newspapers (2-3 hours after being posted on TE)?

The article has been copied and misinterpreted in numerous ways in Romanian newspapers; nobody mentioned it's a blog post. All suggest it's a serious analysis by a foreign expert or something. I believe you should add some sort of disclaimer to these articles, explaining that it's V.P.'s own opinion and that V.P. is a mere mortal :-). I think it's easy to see how many of your usual readers are irritated by the one-sided and undocumented posts by V.P. Please check last week's article by T.W., which managed to do a good job.

And one more thing: would you care to look at the economy of that country instead of being so concerned with politics? I think FT has waaaaay better coverage of Romanian/CEE economics than you. Otherwise, please consider changing the name from The Economist to The Politician.

P.S.: V.P.'s titles are just appalling:
1. Political crisis in Romania: Wobbles at the top | The Economist
Sep 27th 2010, 16:36 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
2. Romania: Too hot to handle | The Economist
Jun 14th 2010, 16:31 by V.P. | BUCHAREST AND E.L. | LONDON.
3. Romania's hopeless politics: How not to run a country | The Economist
Romania's hopeless politics. How not to run a country. Oct 22nd 2010, 18:35 by V.P. | BUCHAREST
4. France's expulsion of Roma: Have your Roma back | The Economist
Aug 19th 2010, 9:44 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
5. Romania's economy: What's that giant sucking sound? | The ...
Nov 28th 2011, 17:46 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
6. Romanian roads: Romania's motorway blues | The Economist
Aug 16th 2011, 12:09 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
7. Anti-missile defence in Romania: The great shield of Deveselu | The ...
Anti-missile defence in Romania. The great shield of Deveselu. Nov 7th 2011, 19: 03 by V.P. | BUCHAREST.
8. (the last straw): Rioting in Romania: The battle of Bucharest | The Economist
The battle of Bucharest. Jan 16th 2012, 13:57 by V.P.. Tweet. "POLENTA doesn't explode" is the gnomic phrase Romanians

P.P.S.: TE has been very generous and deleted a post of mine containing a short list of possible V.P.'s from politically involved media groups.

Ha! So mister Azorel was wrong: it's not VP's fault for the continuous negativistic articles with negativistic, depreciative titles, that always appear in this newspaper, it's simply the newspaper's view upon Romania...hmm, it's good to know where this newspaper stands, so there's no ambiguity. really, Romania must be the worst country in the world, or at least that is what one can understand from these articles: i couldn't say the same about Poland, for instance,which must be 1000 times better off, or at least that is what I can deduce from the tone of your articles. From what I gathered until now, from your articles, I will stay away forever away from Romania and i can't understand what is that Prince Charles finds in it in order to spend so much time there...doesn't he read The Economis? Maybe.

Elef74 in reply to 9v9iv2XG5F

Surely The Economist should not present positively the appalling situation of Romania.
Really, could you find praising words for the corruption, the instability, the failing social security schemes, and the disfunctional justice system in that country (just to name a few of the worst)? I think not.
The fact that the country can show some positives does not detract from its terrible overall situation.
I actually find The Economist has quite a balanced approach. Well done.

JustBeGood

What seems to be missed by politicians in these countries, as well as outside observers is that austerity has to be tied to elimination of graft and corruption. How can you install austerity measures before dismantling the corruption framework which is making some people (the ones that caused the crisis) completely immune to austerity? This is so patently unjust, that people revolt, not because they reject austerity, but because they demand that the elite join them.

dragos27 in reply to JustBeGood

People revolt everywhere to austerity and hardship. They revolt in London, and they revolt in the banlieue. People just care about themselves. Arresting some high ranking official is not going to make them swallow the austerity pill more dutifully.

JustBeGood in reply to dragos27

"People revolt everywhere to austerity and hardship. They revolt in London, and they revolt in the banlieue."

In Romania, the protesters were saying that corruption was making their life impossible. It is not a matter of arresting officials, but stopping corruption and preventing inequity. In London, the protesters were citing police brutality, discrimination and not just hardship. The same story in the banlieue.

People will accept austerity, only if it starts at the top. They revolt if they think the poor are made to suffer, while the rich increase their profits. They revolt if they see no way out. That is the case in Romania, London and Paris ... although the manifestations are quite different, as well as the solutions.

There certainly is no reason for widespread poverty in Europe, there are enough resources (knowledge, people and capital) to prevent this. However, there is no political will, there is no willingness to change ... and there is immeasurable greed at the top.

citizen gogu in reply to JustBeGood

Who is supposed to dismantling the corruption when every member of the former Boc cabinet is corrupt? Who is supposed to dismantling corruption when the President himself must explain some "funky business" in real estate field? Who is supposed to dismantling corruption as long as in Romania the Constitution is “raped” every day by the President and his gang? Funny thing is the new members of the new cabinet are also "honest business men". All of them made fortunes doing business with public institutions as almost every rich person in Romania. They are stilling our money but they called themselves “business men”.
I see all kind of comments posted by romanians who claim everything is GREAT in Romania. I wonder if those comments comes from the ordinary romanian people. I don’t know about you but to me these comments smells like DIE employees. But above all these the funniest thing is the fact that all these are happening under US government blessing. US ambassador to Bucharest give romanians time to time free advice like who is good guy and must be kept, who is bad guy and must be eventually arrested. Also he told us we should be grateful because we can freely protest without being shot by snipers from the buildings. So, who should dismantling corruption?

MihaiH

I agree with most of the comments so far. By the way, the title "Free falling" refers to PDL? Or does it refer to Romania? Maybe it refers to mr. Boc? If it refers to the first or the last, then that's normal. Show me a country where reformers have been loved and appreciated (especially in the kind of world economic context we're dealing with right now).
If you refer to Romania, then, as your article superficially showed, the country is not doing bad, especially in comparison to others with a similar background. And, as many Economist articles correctly pointed on many occasions, usually reform results show over longer periods of time...

sigquit

Every time I read a piece on Romania by "V.P" I get the nauseous feeling that usually comes with watching the Romanian tabloid/propaganda TV channels - Antena 3 and Realitatea.
While I get that Romania is a low interest subject, with very few "experts" that can bring something interesting to the table, I think the Economist should keep to the standards we're used to and do some fact checking before allowing anyone to click "publish" on their behalf.

zanazmeilor

It is outrageous what the opposition and the likes of Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta are doing to the country. They are shaking the hard earned political and economic stability out of populism without advancing a realistic plan to take the country forward. They are just fed up with being the opposition and play on the fears of the unemployed and the poor to reach their demagogic goals. It is appalling how the good people of Romania seemed to have lost their minds and forget the great damage done to the country by the PSD government. The history of the post-communist Romania teaches us who is the real villain.

Radian in reply to zanazmeilor

Oh yeah, OK!! :-))
The PDL propagandists are reiterating here the same old slogans launched by the secret services during Iliescu's first term as president, namely: "Coposu is to blame."
It’s ridiculous!!
And YES, you are right, the history of the post-communist Romania taught us that the real villain is Traian Basescu and his mafia-like entourage.

bezdomnii

Who is the author of this article?
Nothing is falling (maybe your journalist in Bucharest is falling under the tables in restaurants)- It is a strategic move due to the elections - there are some notable changes also but since they are positive they'll be noticed in about 20 years by the Economist team.
Good luck.
Andra

AndreiMP

I don't get the title of the article. It's "tabloidic". Who's falling? The economy is not in collapse, the ruling party is just replacing PMs, not giving up power. It's not such a complicated situation, just a little reshuffle in an election year.

augwhite in reply to AndreiMP

The title may be more an allusion to the Tom Petty song of 25 years ago -- not that negative.

The only really worrying aspect is the LP boycott. A boycott means an unwillingness to accept the lumps associated with participation in democratic constitutional government. Frankly, it makes Antonescu look like an authoritarian trying to sell his country down the river for the sake of temporary popularity. It also gives the LP a stake in promoting the failure of Roumania's economy. Economic disaster is always a fertile ground for populists. Once in power, everything bad will be blamed on his predecessors, the EU, IMF, USA, and the rest of the Putin playbook. Elections will be delayed ... It's an old story.

Then again, Ungureanu seems to be making a very good impression on the international press.

Ioan

Maybe this looks like a free falling. And maybe it is. But well managed, this political energy can create a very strong momentum for take-off! Recent reforms very good and a smart government can easily come up with a new hand in the game, and win.

guest-iljinnn in reply to Ioan

Ioan, you are out of your mind. When a country borrow 40 billion euro to obtain 1,5%(forecast) GDP increase, is really interesting to say what they expect next year when they have to pay 26 billions back.

Adava Kedavra in reply to guest-iljinnn

Your understanding of economics is rather nonexistent: Countries do not borrow money to obtain GDP increases, nor is the GDP falling when debts are repaid. The loan from IMF was taken to strengthen the National's bank reserves, enabling it to better manage liquidity shortages during an eventual bank crisis.

In a more general context, I do agree that the article is rather biased, in line with previous TE articles, following a somewhat tabloid-like pattern. Poor job both for the author and the editors who approve this without further investigating

guest-iljinnn in reply to Adava Kedavra

There is some truth in telling that the loan was taken in order to strengthen the national bank reserve, but in the same time the National Bank released for the commercial banks the same amount decreasing the obligatory deposits. The economics can be made simple. When you add something you can count more, when you subtract something is less to count. It's some truth in saying "is better to be rich, healthy and young instead of being bankrupt, old and ill". Countries are borrowing billions for no particular reasons and are paying back the debts randomly?

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

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