Free exchange

Economics

China's currency

Yuan goes up, must come down

Dec 7th 2011, 11:29 by R.A. | LONDON

BACK in July, a souped-up version of The Economist's Big Mac index indicated that China's currency actually seemed to be near its fair value. That didn't prevent politicians in America and elsewhere from keeping the pressure on China to allow its currency to appreciate faster, even as Chinese labour costs grew rapidly. In October, America's Senate passed a bill that would require the government to consider currency manipulation in judging the fairness of import prices: a step calculated to make it easier to levy tariffs on Chinese goods.

The world has become a much different place since this summer, however. Emerging-market growth is quickly flipping from red hot to worrisomely flat. Chinese factory activity is declining, according to the latest measures, while India's growth is disappointing and Brazil's has vanished, as of the third quarter. At the same time, financial troubles in Europe are contributing to capital outflows from large emerging markets and corresponding declines in currency values.

One might have expected China to dodge these pressures. The yuan has long been deemed undervalued while other emerging markets fretted about the overvaluation of their currencies. China has long run a current account surplus, suggesting that upward adjustment of the exchange rate is necessary, and has enjoyed corresponding reserve growth. And China's capital markets are tightly controlled, making rapid inflows and outflows of capital impossible.

Yet, there are nonetheless signs of an interesting reversal for the yuan. As Josh Noble points out, the yuan has been butting up against the lower edge of its daily trading window. It appears that China may be intervening to support the currency; Chinese reserves have been falling in recent months.

These trends may not trouble China's authorities too much. Inflation may become less of a threat as the global economy slows, reducing the government's need to use the exchange rate as an instrument of policy tightening. And with growth now a key concern, a drop in the value of China's currency is sure to be a welcome boost for exporters facing an ugly 2012 in key export markets, most notably Europe. In any case, I suspect the news will manage to appeal to both China bashers and China sceptics.

Readers' comments

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criticalobserver

It is now abundantly clear that it was the US that was manipulating the powerful Western propaganda machine for ulterior motives. It was only recently that American deficits with China were attributed to the undervaluation of the Yuan by 40%. Then after the Yuan was appreciated by about 5% since the beginning of the year, it is now said that it is too high and should come down. In the meantime, America is still having massive deficits with China and 87 countries.

From the above it is clear that the West, particularly America, has no creditability. All their propaganda should be treated with the utmost contempt.

TheBornLoser

Oh crap. What excuse will the American emperors with no clothes tell their misguided public about the state of their economy now? What is the next great blame that will be heaped upon China? That China steals American inventions? Hahaha! If so, no wonder China produces quite a number of crap goods.... they should have been stealing from the Europeans, Japanese and Koreans instead. At least "copying" the Germans would produce a product of real quality than anything American invented (except maybe Apple's stuff... but too bad, the man at its helm is gone... no one wants to copy American cars nowadays, LOL!).

guest-iiaenoj

doesn't take a genius to realize that. I though, "oh, the yaun will go down a bit" when I read the economist article about china putting a million more people on the dole. it's no surprise.

hedgefundguy

while India's growth is disappointing

Wasn't there a blog entry about the decline of FDI in India, and its currency falling?

India backtracks on plan to let in foreign retail
NEW DELHI -- India on Wednesday suspended its plan to open its huge retail sector to foreign companies such as Wal-Mart in a reversal seen as a major capitulation to political opponents that further weakens the administration.

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/12/india_backtracks_on_...

Regards

hedgefundguy

I'm not sure how things are now but years ago when I was in Germany I noticed that the price of basic goods - food, the buses/U-bahn - was much cheaper vs. what I would have paid in the in the US.
The cost of non-basic goods - a Minolta or Canon camera, or petrol -was expensive.

Perhaps China is doing something similar which effect your Big Mac Index.

Remember, the yuan was relatively flat vs. the dollar for a period after the 2008 revulsion.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDCNY=X&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

BTW, what ever happened to "global rebalancing"?

Regards

lpc1998

The Economist:

“Yet, there are nonetheless signs of an interesting reversal for the yuan. As Josh Noble points out, the yuan has been butting up against the lower edge of its daily trading window. It appears that China may be intervening to support the currency; Chinese reserves have been falling in recent months.”

Speculative money is flowing out of Hong Kong as the China is taking steps to boost imports in the environment of slowing export growth, making a sharp decline in China’s trade surplus a certainty to placate critics of China’s trade surplus and RMB management. This raises the expectation of a depreciating RMB, which causes holders of dollars in the Mainland to refrain from exchanging the dollars for the RMB at the Chinese banks. So Chinese reserves should continue to fall until there is another dollar confidence crisis.

Another reason here for the falling Chinese reserves is the consequence of China’s policy of maintaining a stable US$-CNY exchange rate for her international trade settlement and investments so long as her international trade and investments are still mainly denominated in the dollar. This would give the impression that China is “re-pegging” the RMB to the dollar again and for future allegations that China has “re-pegged” the RMB to keep the RMB “undervalued” when, in fact, China is propping up a weakening RMB to keep it “overvalued”.

bampbs

A Big Mac Index GDP per capita adjustment seems wrong for China. What proportion of the Chinese population has access to a Big Mac, or can afford one ? An adjustment using that group's GDP per capita would be much more comparable to the circumstances in the US, where just about everyone can buy a Big Mac.

one busy bee in reply to bampbs

Dear Bampbs,i can tell you that Macdonalds in China are everywhere and always full of people,imagine your average Macdonalds in the West and cuadruple the people you normally see inside and you will get the picture of an average Macdonalds in China,besides a Big Mac is about 14 yuan,about two dollars,a Big Mac Meal is about 23 yuan,3.60 USD

silent night in reply to bampbs

@bampbs @Find-ThySelf

you misunderstand the exchange fluctuation and PPP.Currencys are commodities whose exchange fluctuation mainly depend on the supply-demand relation,not PPP.

A Big Mac Index only shows PPP in different countries and areas which is only for reference,not accurate.

Obviously Big Mac or other foods in Macdonalds will lead serious health problems,few people will eat as day-to-day foods in China.On the other side,same foods are often sold in 1/3th of Macdonalds's.

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In this blog, our correspondents consider the fluctuations in the world economy and the policies intended to produce more booms than busts. Adam Smith argued that in a free exchange both parties benefit, and this blog's aim is to encourage a free exchange of views on economic matters.

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