Business travel
Passenger numbers
Europe's passenger problem
Feb 3rd 2012, 15:09 by A.B.
AIRPORT traffic in Europe grew 7.3% in 2011, according to new figures from the Airports Council International (ACI). Having said that, it makes more sense to compare 2011’s traffic with a 2010 figure that does not include the traffic-reducing effect of the volcanic ash cloud. In this scenario the increase in traffic in 2011 is only 5.2%.
Traffic grew more strongly in airports outside the European Union than those inside (12.2% v 6.3%). The slowdown in the euro zone was partly to blame for this discrepancy. For example, Athens saw the greatest drop in passenger numbers (-6.3%) out of the continent's 50 biggest airports, and—more alarmingly—its traffic dropped 10% year-on-year in December 2011.
Problems in the euro zone explain why Olivier Jankovec, the director general of ACI Europe, expects the region's traffic to be less impressive in 2012 than in 2011.
The odds are that 2012 will be a different story. Economies have come to a stand-still in many parts of Europe with the sovereign debt crisis, which is also having a ripple effect on growth prospects elsewhere. This will affect demand for air transport. At the same time, fuel costs and national aviation taxes are going to limit airlines ’ willingness to add capacity – a serious concern, especially for regional airports.
Heathrow remains the biggest airport in Europe, with over 69m passengers passing through in 2011. Amsterdam Schiphol, currently the continent's fourth-biggest airport, will overtake Heathrow in 2019 if both facilities continue to grow at the same rate as at present. (Given that Schiphol has five runways and Heathrow two, this particular changing of the order has an air of inevitability.)
At the other end of the scale, spare a thought for the least busy of ACI Europe's 168 member airports. Arad in Romania saw 1,124 passengers in 2011—an average of 22 a week. I guess its 300 parking spaces don't see too much use...
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I'm sure 300 parking spaces is not too much for Arad airport. It may have ceased passenger flights early last year (hence the figure of 1,124 passengers for 2011) with all regular flights now leaving from nearby Timisoara airport, but I believe it is now a busy cargo airport.
Apart from the valid reasons you stated, Guliver, why would anyone travelling elsewhere, put thmselves through such an ordeal, unless they planned a stopover?? Long transit line-ups/delays due to heightened security protocalls, poor/rude hospitality services, expensive/shoddy airport facilities, badly managed inter-terminal transit services... to name a few that spring to mind.
(Personaly, I've been over-flying/avoiding Europe - as much as possible - for the past fifteen years or so.)
Arad sounds like it might be the place to live. I wonder if it is good there?
The quiet, modern little airport in Sibiu is my favourite. And there are regular announcements: "Illegal bagage is prohibited and must be claimed immediately." Or was it ? "Prohibited baggage is illegal..."
If we can be sure of anything at all, it's that "if both facilities continue to grow at the same rate as at present" just won't happen.
Making predictions is particularly difficult about the future (sarcasm intended, in case you wondered) and linear extrapolations almost never turn out to be correct over a period longer than a few months.
When one adds in the uncertainties about the future price of oil, future economic growth, future enviromental concerns and others that I can't even think of now, it seems obvious to me that we have almost no idea about the numbers of airline passengers in 2019.
I am really impressed by the way airlines have placed orders for new planes to be delivered so many years into the future. They are certainly courageous, and probably foolhardy, in my opinion.
But I'm only a "fonctionnaire" (civil servant), no doubt completely out of touch with the "real world".
Technically speaking, I believe the extrapolation is exponential rather than linear (assuming it's a %/annum rate) but your point about the veraciy of (what I was taught should be called) naive models is well taken.
My bigger question with the whole article is So ??? If Schiphol exceeds Heathrow - or if even if it doesn't - so what ??? What exactly is the passenger "problem" being hinted at ?? (And if it's that there won't be enough load to retire the debt created for these complexes, then maybe Gulliver should stop encouraging even MORE HSR to sap the numbers further.)