Wednesday May 23rd 2012
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The week ahead: January 19th 2012
Tensions ratchet up with Iran
Jan 20th 2012, 12:37 by The Economist online
DAVOS kicks off, Greece takes steps to refinance its debt, the State of the Union address and the European Union votes on more sanctions against Iran
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Iran wants to start a seaborne insurgency with floating IEDs, anti ship mines, midget submarines firing torpedoes, and cruise missiles BLINDLY attacking any ship in the Gulf.
It is one thing to target the US NAVY.
IT is quite another thing to hit international commercial ships and tankers from Europe, Central America, Africa, Australia and Asia. It will be a public relations disaster! Converting a focal Iran-American Conflict into Iran vs the West, the UN, World, and Globalization.
This will lead to immediate fuel shortages, huge lines, rioting and a shut down of the economy----IN IRAN.
Ironically while Iran is a Crude Oil Exporter, it lacks refineries for processing and cracking petroleum. Thus Iran has to IMPORT gasoline, diesel, and kerosene.
The Iran Irony is delicious. It is like being stranded on a raft on the ocean and dying of thirst. "Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink." Crude oil cannot run machinery.
Iran depends on Gulf Shipping to bring in 90% of its fuel imports and exports; a Hormuz Embargo is cutting of their nose to spite their face.
Iran may be the first Arabian Government Revolution brought to bear principally by external conflict; which subsequently lead to fuel shortages and gas station lines, internal dissent, market panic, economic shutdown protests and then revolution.
Compound this with the European, Japan, Korean, and potentially Chinese embargos. And major disruptions in alliances with Syria, Libya, and Turkey.
It is still winter, but Persian Spring is in the air. It smells like gasoline.
Western sanctions against Iran have worked very well - for China. As shown in this article, western countries have been forced to step back from infrastructure investment in Iran's oil and gas industry and have been replaced by China:
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/iran-oil-giant.html
China's multi-billion dollar investment in Iran will definitely complicate the delicate balancing act for the United States should they choose to take military action against the Iranian regime.