The crowded politics of 2012

Good idea, Connect The Dots, here are my predictions for 2012 (edited from an different post in October)

The Eurozone will collapse, precipitating an existential EU crisis over why it cannot ever get its act together quickly enough. The EU survives but only on the basis of a radically new constitution which won't be decided by year's end. The Arab spring will grind to a halt among failed states and disappointing faux dictatorships, but not before the regime in Syria collapses and the one in Iraq threatens to. The Iraqi Kurds declare Kurdistan in the ruins of Northern Iraq. Turkey threatens war, but hesitates in the face of a potential uprising in their own land. The West will have a nasty surprise with the rise of Salafism all over the Middle East and by year's end a war with Israel against a huge but disorganised rag-tag jihadi army, able to cross borders at will, is looming. Iran is paralysed by internal dissent (the presidency versus the clergy), including being unable to prevent the Iranian Kurds seceding to join with their Iraqi brothers to create Greater Kurdistan, but would be otherwise showing the way, from its rhetoric. Barack Obama is re-elected, just, after a bruising campaign noted for dirty fighting on both sides and an irrelevant Republican candidate. The tea party faction collapses as swiftly as it arose, crushed between the two poles of American politics and ruined by its own intransigence. Mexico and the drug trail states become ungovernable but the US still refuses to legalise and tax drugs. The Afghan war worsens for the same reason, fuelled by events over the border. Pakistan suffers the severest floods in its history and its government collapses. The army, unwillingly this time, is forced to take over with the consent of the Judiciary. Tension between India and Pakistan, driven by army paranoia, overshadows everything else by year's end. The anarchy in Somalia spreads to neighbouring states while the Somali pirates are shown to be being backed by gulf states, including Iran. The prospect of widespread war, fuelled by rising fury at the revealed perfidies of the usual suspects, encourage nations to spend lots of money on their military, precipitating economic recovery. British defence cuts are criticised for the same short-sightedness shown in the 1930s. 2013 looks like being a lot more interesting than 2012 and the Economist offer a prize for the most accurate prediction of what happens in 2013 (in under 5,000 characters), to be judged by results (of course), in 2014.

For 2013 I predict that:

Steve Thompson will continue to hawk his blog incessantly on the Economist forum

Flymulla will continue to post off topic ramblings that no one can decipher or bother to read

The Fundamentalist shall remain just that

Doug Pascover will continue to be our overall popular choice for president

Great Uncle Clive shall continue to unwittingly create comedy out of misogyny

k.a.gardner will accept being referred to as k.a.gardener

ashbird will understand more of the forum in-jokes than last year

bampbs will explain what his nom de plume actually means

I will easily live up to Doug's prediction above

:)

I’ll recycle my predictions from two years ago:

On reflection, Copenhagen [December 2009] will be seen as the defining moment, the moment when the impossibility of achieving coordinated global action (on any matter involving real costs) became obvious. As the year wears on, the realisation will sink in that – while the talking may continue – there will be no meaningful action.

The emphasis will change from preventing climate change to living with climate change . . . or perhaps just ignoring climate change.

For some this will mean existential despair. For others it will mean living for the moment and letting tomorrow look after itself..

On another matter, this year – as with last year, and the year before, and the year before that - there will be further incremental improvements in “artificial” intelligence. It will be barely reported, and will go unnoticed except by those with a particular interest in it, but it will keep happening.

Slowly, imperceptibly, unwittingly, the human species will continue to supersede itself.

This is very interesting. But it's all
about the past. It is hard to conclude
from this that buying a house is a bad
investment. For that, you'd have to
make predictions about the future. http://yurosie.blogspot.com/2011/12/about-century-21-broker-properti-jua...

Good idea, Connect The Dots. I'll put up my predictions:

Whoever wins the Republican nomination, whichever Mitt Romney that may be, will assure the American public that we are innocent victims. Obama will run against the nominee by assuring the American people that we are innocent victims. The budget deficit will not change importantly.
The U.S. government will almost shut down between 4 and 6 times, at least once during the general election period.
The British government will contest great ideas without implementing any, metaphorically, Parliament will be seen through the shimmering surface of the lake at Avalon.
The Euro will be partially rescued between 4 and 6 times.
The White Sox will win the World Series (I've believed that every year for almost 4 decades and have been right once. By punditry standards that's practically 6-sigma.)
However well the Miami Heat do, LeBron James will be criticized for not living up to his potential.
Some celebrity someone will make a big splash on the news which I will find out about from Democracy in America and not get the importance of someone.
Hedgie will be commenter of the year on Buttonwood's blog. La Contra will earn his pseudonym at least 180 times.
There will be a World in 2013 blog.

My off-the-cuff 2012 predictions:
US: Obama defeats a feckless, incompetent, polarizing Republican candidate with a funny first name.
The Tea Party gets Brewed in the 2012 Elections.
Occupy Wall Street is Vacant smudge on the sidewalk. They were they Hallmark Greeting Cards of Social Change: Empty Slogans and Platitudes.
Russia: Putin manages to get a 102% landslide election victory! He has 4 years, but the second four years will be unlikely as opposition grows like cancer. His rocky return is like sitting on a volcano of trouble.
China: Xi Jinping is elected unopposed in Central Committee Election. White smoke rises from the chimney. No real choice for the people, but Growth is the real mandate.
France: Fragmented opposition allows Sarkozy to win reelection. The Anti British Card becomes useful. Begins Siamese Twinning to Merkel in Project Merkozy.
Small Euro Countries, Scandinavian and East bloc alliance, begin a Transnational Opposition to the German-French Axis.
Pope ailing and successor talks begin.
Syrian leader Assad is deposed during a long Holy Muslim Holiday that erupts in anarchy and riot. He will be executed like Qaadafi unless he can find exile in Tehran.
Turkey's Erdogan retires because of advanced cancer. Turkey drifts to fundamentalism and the Europeans are dismayed. EU membership becomes as likely for Turkey as Iraq.
Hugo Chavez dies of his cancer. Venezuelans begin to unravel the depths of his corruption, drug involvement and adverturism.
Pakistan's president Ali Zardari goes into exile in Europe and cites medical reasons after several close assassination attempts. Military Junta. Nukes in limbo.

Mugabe suffers stroke. Presidency sidelined. Africa rejoices.
North Korea loses Chinese financial backing after new ephisodes of unprovoked military 'adventures'. Last lifeline is cut. Regimes declines. No food. No Fuel. Days are numbered.
Iran's Amedinejad is deposed and placed under house arrests after brutal overreaction to Arab Spring Protests in Tehran. Ayatollah spins the blame on the fall guy. But protests continue. Surprise, Iranian students start a revolution 2.0
Twitterevolution.

Young Gandhi makes a bid for Indian Prime Minister. The youngster will prove just as competent as Kim Jong- Eu. Nepotism is bad leadership whether communism or democracy.

Fidel Castro dies. World remembers the brink of Cuban Missile Crisis hours from Armageddon. The Fifth Horseman was Fidel.

Iraq descends into violent chaos. Bombmakers become franchise businesses and even apprenticeships. Bagdad Bomb Report becomes as banal as the weather report.

The Arab Spring enters a new violent phase with bombing and assassinations similar to Iraq. Coffin Shortage. Makes the French Revolution Reign of Terror look like Disneyland. Some begin to deplore the new anarchy. Search the Koran for answers that are not there.
Brisk sales for bullet proof vests, bullet proof automobiles, and blast resistant armored vehicles. Helmets become fashionable in Arab capitals.

Muslims find their most deadly foe is NOT a Jew, Christian or Westerner. Their danger is the Muslim from a different sect and tribe. Jihad 2.0, The New War.
Forget Muslim Unity and Brotherhood: Muslim diversity is deadly.
Anti Muslim-Muslim Violence replaces anti western death threats.

Huge new wave of Muslim immigration to Europe and the West--the largest since the Fall of Algeria. European right wing backlash spreads.
Mexico request US Army intervention for a DMZ on its Northern border. Recalled armored Cav Divsion is redeployed to the border. Skills sharpened from overseas deployment overwhelms the two-bit cartels.

The Mayans prove to be as correct about the 2012 End of the World prediction as Geeks were about YK2.

The new Apple Guys look increasingly inadequate, non charismatic, and uncool. The new CEO seems like a younger Bill Gates of Microsoft and unfortunately that is the direction of Apple: Micrapple.

In the London Olympics, China leads the world in Gold and Overall Medal Count. India lags Jamaica.

The Titanic II sets sail to commerate the 100th anniversary of the first. Thanks to Global Warming, it does not hit an iceberg. Bankers thrown overboard in the mid Atlantic just for fun. Surprisingly, the fat ones float like mini icebergs--sometimes you can be too fat to drown.

If any of these come true, call me Nostradamus. If they don't call me Cassandra Too.